VOL XII · ED 2026.05.14 · REGIME LOADING
The Underdog Tribune
Cross-sectional discovery, 12-gate weighted promotion engine, active hard-stop enforcement  ·  All ever-promoted entries preserved for tracking
Active
positions
Avg Return
since first listed
Top Position
Ever Promoted
tickers tracked
Queue
pending candidates

Recently Promoted — Buyable This Week

Last 7 trading days · sorted by buy-actionability

The Slate — v3 tiered scoring

12 gates · regime-adjusted

Promotion Grade Distribution

All ever promoted · current outcome
·A · ≥+15%
·B · 0 to +15%
·C · −10 to 0%
·D · < −10%
winners running
holding modestly
under pressure
hard-stop zone

Active Positions

holdings · ◆ winner-protected

Promotion History — Every Ever-Promoted

Append-only · preserved for tracking
Grade Ticker / Company Theme First Price Current Return Status Last Event
loading…

Wire — Pending Candidates

v3 12-gate cascade · weighted scoring · regime-adjusted
Ticker Theme Conf Score Gates G0–G11 Verdict
Pass (≥70) Strong (50–69) Weak (<50) Warn Tier-cap applied Hard reject Skipped (optional) Hover any chip for gate explanation · click a row for full breakdown

The Twelve Gates — v3 weighted engine

G0–G11 · weighted scoring · regime-adjusted
G0
Data Quality
price ≥ $2  ·  20d $vol ≥ $3M  ·  120+ trading days  ·  mcap ≥ $100M
Untradable names die here. Sub-$2 prints, sub-$3M daily dollar volume, fewer than 120 trading days of history, or sub-$100M market cap mean we can't act on a signal even if we generated one. Hard-reject layer — nothing downstream runs.
G1
Discovery Quality
passes hard filters  ·  confidence ≥ 45 (strong ≥ 70)
Baseline conviction from the discovery pipeline. Below 45 confidence the candidate is rarely worth the technical-analysis bandwidth. Bands of 45/60/70 map to weak/moderate/strong.
G2
Market Regime
risk_on (+2)  ·  neutral (0)  ·  risk_off (−5)  ·  stress (−12, cap)
Classifies the macro tape (SPY trend, VIX, breadth). Adjusts the final score by ±2 to −12. Stress regimes cap promotion to watchlist — the best stock in a bad tape still gets hurt.
G3
Technical State
broken (reject) · basing (cap) · early_recovery · confirmed_trend · extended (cap)
The architectural centrepiece. Replaces v2's rigid “price > 50 EMA and 50 EMA > 200 EMA” with five tape regimes derived from EMA structure, slopes, RSI, swing-low formation, and Bollinger compression. broken hard-rejects, extended caps to wait-for-pullback, basing caps to watchlist; early_recovery and confirmed_trend are eligible. This is what lets underdogs in technical-repair phases score.
G4
Momentum & RS
5d return ∈ [−1.25·ATR, +2.5·ATR]  AND  RS vs SPY/QQQ/IWM positive
ATR-normalised return bounds (not flat percentages) catch parabolic blow-offs and active drawdowns without false-flagging quiet stocks. Plus relative strength against the theme-appropriate benchmark over 20d and 60d. Outperforming both is a +driver, lagging is a −driver.
G5
Volume & Accumulation
5d:50d ≥ 0.80  ·  OBV slope rising  ·  UD ratio ≥ 1.20  ·  breakout-day ≥ 1.50×
Multi-factor volume read — not just “is volume alive” but “is money flowing in.” OBV slope, up/down volume ratio, and at least one >1.50× breakout day within the last 5 sessions confirm institutional accumulation.
G6
Event Risk
0–5d → blocked · 6–10d → caution · 11+ → clear · post-event → confirm
Four tiers, not binary. Inside the 5-day earnings window the candidate caps to watchlist. 6–10 days out caps to early_recovery. Clear (>10 days) is unrestricted. The first 3 sessions after an earnings print require confirmation (no premature re-promotion on gap-ups).
G7
Fundamentals & Catalyst
fundamental_quality (0–25)  ·  analyst net signal  ·  insider activity  ·  short-squeeze potential  ·  catalyst presence
Pulls fundamental_quality (0–25) from v2 scoring, plus the analyst-change net signal, insider buying/selling pattern, short-interest squeeze potential, and any known upcoming catalyst. Weighted at 15% of the final score. When all five sources are empty the weight is redistributed across G3/G4/G5 rather than crediting a neutral 50.
G8
Sentiment & News
news sentiment label · confidence · pump/promotional phrase detection
Reads news_sentiment.json — sentiment label (positive/negative/bull/bear), confidence (numeric or textual: low/medium/high), and a free-text signal scanned for explicit pump phrases (pump-and-dump, paid promotion, meme stock, etc.). Pump pattern caps tier to watchlist. Never a standalone driver. Optional — when data is absent the weight is redistributed by the engine rather than crediting a neutral 50.
G9
Options Overlay
put/call OI ratio · ATM IV · interpretation text · earnings proximity
Reads options_signals.json: put/call open-interest ratio, at-the-money IV, an interpretation/signal field, and earnings proximity hint. Tactical edge layer; contributes 2.5% weight when present and is dropped entirely (weight redistributed) when data is absent. IV rank, skew, and gamma walls are not yet ingested.
G10
Adaptive Lockout
−15% → 20d · −25% → 60d · 2-in-90d → 120d hard · repair required
Replaces v2's flat 60d window. Cooldown length scales with damage; two stops in 90 days produces a 120-day hard lockout. To re-enter early the chart must show technical repair — reclaim 20 EMA, higher-low structure, and EMA rising — otherwise hard-rejects.
G11
Risk Sizing
low 1.00× · medium 0.65× · high 0.35× · speculative 0.15× · blocked 0×
Final synthesis. Combines tech state + event tier + lockout + liquidity into a five-bucket position-size multiplier and an ATR-based stop loss (price − 2.0 × ATR-14). Determines how much capital, if any, the candidate actually deserves.
Each gate produces a 0–100 score and may either hard-reject the candidate, cap the tier (passes, but limits how high it can be promoted), or contribute to the weighted final score. The most restrictive cap wins. Replaces v2's rigid binary cascade with a probabilistic, regime-aware engine that recognises underdog technical-repair phases instead of rejecting them.